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U.S. Agricultural Futures Fall Sharply

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures fell sharply across the board on Friday, led by wheat.

The most active corn contract for December delivery fell 11.75 cents, or 2.41 percent, to settle at 4.7675 U.S. dollars per bushel. December wheat plunged 37.25 cents, or 6.44 percent, to settle at 5.415 dollars per bushel. November soybean lost 25.5 cents, or 1.96 percent, to settle at 12.75 dollars per bushel.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Sept. 1 Stocks and Final U.S. 2023 Small Grain Production report is bearish.

USDA forecast 2022-2023 U.S. corn end stocks at 1,361 million bushels, down 91 million bushels from the September estimate and 16 million bushels below the year prior stocks. U.S. 2022 corn crop was revised down 15 million bushels with 2022 yield pegged at 173.4 bushels per acre (BPA).

USDA forecast 2022-2023 U.S. soybean end stocks at 268 million bushels, up 18 million bushels from the September estimate, but down 2 percent from last year.

USDA forecast 2022-2023 U.S. wheat end stocks at 1,780 million bushels. Final U.S. hard red spring (HRS) wheat production is pegged at 468 million bushels, as against 413 million bushels in July. Final hard red winter (HRW) wheat production is 601 million bushels, as against 585 million bushels in July. Total U.S. wheat production was lifted 77 million bushels to 1,811 million bushels, comparing to 1,650 million bushels.

Wheat futures have pushed to new lows with support for December Chicago wheat found under 5.50 dollars per bushel.

It is normal for CBOT soybeans to score annual low in early October. Downside risk in corn is limited. Wheat is undervalued and oversold. China is on holiday next week and U.S. farmers will store their new crop harvest waiting for a CBOT rally and improvement. Chicago-based research company AgResource holds that CBOT bull story is rooted in demand.

Limited rainfall is forecast for Central U.S. over the next 10 days. Rains in the Mid-west hold off until mid-next week. A cool forecast is offered after Oct. 7. 

source

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